Corn prices in Ukraine continue to decline amid costly logistics and the approaching new crop

Corn prices in Ukraine continue to decline ahead of the new harvest amid substantial carryover stocks and limited export opportunities. According to USDA estimates, beginning stocks in 2026/27 stand at 2.25 mln tons, compared with 0.84 mln tons a year earlier, while production could increase from 30.9 mln tons to 31.8 mln tons.

Export logistics are adding further pressure. Following the halt of shipments through Black Sea ports, most corn volumes are being moved by rail across Ukraine’s western border. At the same time, a significant share of transshipment and European rail capacity has already been booked through the end of the year, primarily for rapeseed and soybeans.

On the domestic market, corn delivered to elevators and processing plants is currently trading at UAH 6,500–7,500/t. Market participants expect road and rail logistics costs to rise further in October-December as seasonal cargo flows intensify. With delivery to Constanta or EU buyers costing $120–150/t, corn prices could fall to $110–130/t, or UAH 5,500–6,500/t FCA.

Meanwhile, the global market is moving in the opposite direction. Chicago December corn futures gained 15.2% in August to $214.5/t, reaching a three-year high, while November contracts in Paris rose 14.2% to €277.75/t. Prices are being supported by disruptions to Ukrainian exports and deteriorating US crop forecasts.

At the same time, lower Ukrainian corn availability on international markets is being partially offset by supplies from Brazil, Argentina, Romania and Bulgaria. EU corn imports in the new season are forecast at 24 mln tons, up from 18.3 mln tons in the previous season. Therefore, despite high global prices, expensive logistics and increasing new-crop supply could continue to weigh on domestic corn prices in Ukraine.

Tags: Ukraine, corn, export, prices, logistics