Corn futures rise 2% on strong demand and Black Sea risks

Corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) posted solid gains on July 22, supported by strong international demand and ongoing risks to grain exports from the Black Sea region. The September contract climbed 2.04% to $181.89/t, while December futures settled at $190.73/t, gaining more than 9 cents per bushel.

Additional support came from South Korean importers, which purchased between 142 thsd tons and 208 thsd tons of corn through several international tenders. Market participants are also awaiting the USDA’s weekly export sales report, with analysts expecting combined old- and new-crop sales of 400–800 thsd tons.

European corn prices also received additional support from adverse weather in France. After three heat waves since late May, French corn production could fall to its lowest level since 1990. According to France’s Ministry of Agriculture, crop losses could reach one-third of the harvest, while the USDA’s satellite-derived vegetation health index remains the weakest on record for this time of year.

The market is also being supported by heightened tensions in the Black Sea. The suspension of nighttime grain shipments from the Russian port of Novorossiysk following drone attacks, together with uncertainty over the operation of Ukraine’s Black Sea export logistics, has increased risks to global grain supplies and added a risk premium to prices. Against this backdrop, August corn futures on MATIF rose to €259/t, confirming the upward trend in the European market.

Meanwhile, Brazil’s exporters association ANEC raised its July corn export forecast to 3.7 mln tons, up from 3.44 mln tons projected a week earlier, partially offsetting supply concerns from other exporting regions. Analysts believe that market direction in the coming days will depend on the USDA export sales data and further developments in the Black Sea.

Tags: corn, prices