Coffee is becoming more expensive on the world market

Global coffee prices are rising sharply amid geopolitical tensions and climate-related risks. The main drivers are concerns over the последствия of the conflict involving Iran, as well as unfavorable weather conditions in Brazil — one of the world’s key coffee producers.

The strongest increase over the past two weeks has been recorded on the New York exchange, where Arabica prices have surged. Analysts attribute this to the risk of higher logistics costs due to the situation in the Middle East, as well as threats to Brazil’s coffee harvest. Additional pressure comes from disruptions in transportation routes.

U.S. President Donald Trump has extended the truce with Iran indefinitely. Despite this, the Strait of Hormuz — a key oil transit corridor — remains closed, keeping energy prices elevated. This, in turn, increases costs across global supply chains.

According to Carlos Mera from Rabobank, the prolonged conflict is already affecting not only coffee prices but also other agricultural commodities. The situation is worsened by declining certified stocks of Arabica and Robusta, along with rising transportation costs due to higher oil prices.

Experts, including Daryl Krist from StoneX Group Inc. and Gnanasekar Thiagarajan, warn that prices may continue to climb. Key factors include expensive logistics, prolonged drought in Brazil, and a stronger Brazilian real, which limits exports and reduces global coffee supply.

Tags: prices