CoBank expects US soybean crush to maintain record pace

US soybean processors are operating at a record pace thanks to exceptionally strong crush margins. According to CoBank analysts, soybean oil prices surged after the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) finalized the Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) in March, encouraging higher processing volumes. Soybean crush in the US is already running 8% above the same period last marketing year.

The market has also been supported by higher diesel prices following renewed tensions in the Middle East, boosting demand for soybean oil as a feedstock for biodiesel. At the same time, record soybean meal exports and stronger domestic feed demand have helped keep crushing plants running at very high capacity.

Despite the strong crush pace, exports of old-crop US soybeans remain weak due to limited Chinese demand. Total export commitments are down 19% year over year. However, reports of new-crop soybean purchases by Chinese state-owned companies have raised hopes for a return to more normal trade between the two countries.

The USDA estimates US soybean planted area at 85.4 million acres in 2026, up 5% from a year earlier. However, analysts warn that rising heat across the US Midwest could reduce yields. Weather conditions during September, when soybeans are flowering and filling pods, will be crucial for determining final production.

CoBank also noted that corn demand remains exceptionally strong, supported by record export shipments and stable ethanol production. At the same time, lower agricultural commodity prices expected in 2026 are likely to encourage US farmers to focus on protecting yields while limiting spending on fertilizers and other crop inputs.

Tags: soybean, USA, biofuel, soybean oil