Turkey diversifies wheat imports amid Black Sea shipping risks

Turkish millers are increasingly looking for alternative wheat suppliers amid rising shipping risks in the Black Sea. The Baltic states, Romania and Bulgaria are among the alternative origins being considered, Turkish Flour Industrialists’ Federation (TUSAF) Chairman Mehmet Mesut Çakmak told S&P Global.

Escalating risks around Black Sea ports have already significantly increased shipping costs. According to Çakmak, war-risk insurance rates have risen to 2% of a vessel’s value, while freight from Ukraine has jumped from $42 to $54/t in just a few weeks, an increase of nearly 29%.

Despite the search for alternatives, the Black Sea region remains the main source of wheat for Turkish millers. However, the industry is seeking to reduce its dependence on individual countries and routes by diversifying purchases, using shorter-term contracts and adopting more flexible shipping arrangements. High financing costs also limit companies’ ability to build large grain inventories.

Turkey’s need for imported wheat is also being reduced by a record domestic harvest this season. Wheat production is estimated at 24 mln tons, while imports could total around 4 mln tons in the current marketing year. Final import volumes will depend on domestic prices, the Turkish Grain Board’s sales policy and flour export performance.

Turkey aims to increase flour exports to 3 mln tons in 2026, up from 2.345 mln tons last year. A recovery in demand from Syria is supporting exports, while competition in African and Middle Eastern markets is intensifying. Against this backdrop, diversifying wheat supplies is becoming an important way for Turkey’s milling industry to reduce its exposure to disruptions in Black Sea logistics.

Tags: Turkey, wheat, Black Sea, imports