China’s state-owned firms buy US soybeans, while private traders focus on Brazil

China’s soybean import model shows a more complex structure than is commonly assumed in the market. State-owned companies primarily fulfill political commitments to purchase US soybeans, while private crushers and international traders continue to rely on Brazilian supplies.

According to analysts, state entities such as Sinograin and COFCO are effectively responsible for executing US soybean purchases. In 2026, the entire 8.38 million tonnes of US soybean imports were handled by companies registered in Beijing, indicating a highly centralized role of the state sector in these operations.

At the same time, Brazilian soybean imports are mainly carried out by private and mixed companies located across various Chinese provinces. According to China’s customs data, imports of Brazilian soybeans in January–May 2026 totaled 22.68 million tonnes, reflecting a well-developed network of crushing plants and logistics chains along the coast and inland regions.

Analysts note that this structure effectively creates a “dual market”: state-owned firms focus on fulfilling political agreements with the US, while the private sector operates on commercial principles and accounts for the bulk of Brazilian soybean flows for processing.

Against this backdrop, the market is closely watching whether China will be able to meet its broader commitment to purchase 25 million tonnes of US soybeans in 2026. However, experts remain skeptical due to logistical constraints, the lack of a clear enforcement mechanism, and the private sector’s dependence on price incentives and tariff policy.

Tags: China, Brazil, soybean, USA