China’s soybean meal prices fall 3% in October on ample supply and weak demand

The average price of soybean meal in China fell from CNY 3,400/ton (about $510/ton) at the beginning of October to CNY 3,298/ton (about $495/ton) as of October 26, according to SunSirs.

Price pressure intensified amid rising soybean supplies. The U.S. harvest is progressing, while the U.S. Department of Agriculture has raised its estimates for soybean yields and production. Meanwhile, export sales of U.S. soybeans remain subdued. Soybean arrivals in China are expected to reach 8.5 mln tons in October and nearly 9.5 mln tons per month in November and December.

Higher crushing volumes have contributed to an accumulation of soybean meal stocks, which reached about 1.09 mln tons, above levels recorded during the same period in previous years. Demand remains weak due to losses in the livestock sector and restrained herd replenishment. Feed producers are mainly purchasing raw materials as needed rather than building up substantial inventories.

Ample corn supplies are also weighing on demand by reducing feed costs and limiting incentives to increase soybean meal inclusion in feed rations. However, high basis premiums for Brazilian soybeans and weather risks in South America could provide some support to the market.

According to SunSirs, soybean meal prices in China may move on a volatile upward trend in November, fluctuating within a range of CNY 3,300–3,500/ton (about $495–525/ton).

Tags: China, prices, soybean meal