China’s soybean crushing outpaces demand as soybean oil stocks hit record levels

China’s soybean oil inventories have climbed to record levels amid elevated soybean crushing rates and weak domestic demand. As of October 30, 2026, commercial soybean oil stocks in the country approached 1.5 mln tons, up 4.3% from a year earlier. According to consultancy Mysteel, this was the highest level for the corresponding period of the year since at least 2024. Excess supplies are putting pressure on domestic prices and pushing Chinese producers to seek additional export markets.

China, the world’s largest soybean importer, continues to increase purchases from Brazil and the United States to meet the needs of its livestock sector and oilseed crushing industry. Import activity has also been supported by agreements between Beijing and Washington to resume purchases of US soybeans under a trade truce. Meanwhile, high crushing volumes have led to a rapid accumulation of soybean oil inventories, while consumption remains subdued due to slowing economic growth and reduced consumer spending on dining out.

According to COFCO Futures’ Wuhan branch, pressure from excess soybean oil inventories has yet to ease significantly. Crushing plants continue operating at high capacity utilization rates, with soybean oil production exceeding the pace of sales and deliveries to consumers. A similar situation has emerged in the soybean meal market, where weekly inventories reached their highest level in more than two years in October before declining slightly.

Faced with surplus supplies in the domestic market, Chinese producers have significantly increased soybean oil exports. During the first nine months of 2026, outbound shipments more than tripled compared with the same period last year, approaching 800 thsd tons. Stronger exports have helped partially ease pressure on the domestic market, although elevated crushing rates continue to keep inventories high.

Excess supply is already weighing on futures prices. The most actively traded soybean oil futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange fell by as much as 1% on November 3 amid rising domestic inventories. Prices also came under pressure from declining crude oil prices, driven by optimism over potential peace negotiations between the United States and Iran. The outlook for China’s soybean oil market will depend on soybean crushing rates, a recovery in consumer demand and the potential for further export growth.

Tags: China, soybean, oilseeds