China’s return to US soybeans may reduce demand for Brazilian supplies

China has sharply increased purchases of US soybeans in MY 2026/27, improving the outlook for US exports after a weak previous season. According to USDA data, China has already booked 8.98 mln tons of US soybeans, while total US soybean export commitments have risen to 18.9 mln tons, more than double the year-ago level.

USDA forecasts US soybean exports at 45.18 mln tons in MY 2026/27, up 10.9% year on year. US soybean production is projected at 123.42 mln tons, up 6.4% from the previous season. Some traders expect China’s purchases to reach around 25 mln tons.

However, additional duties remain a major constraint for private Chinese importers. US soybeans face a total import duty of 13%, compared with 3% for Brazilian soybeans. As a result, most current purchases of US soybeans are being made by state-owned companies COFCO and Sinograin.

Brazil still dominates the Chinese market, accounting for 72.1% of China’s soybean imports in January-July 2026. In August, Brazil exported 9.8 mln tons of soybeans, of which 7 mln tons were shipped to China.

Traders expect China to step up purchases of US soybeans in the fourth quarter before Brazil’s new crop reaches the market in January. This could temporarily reduce demand for Brazilian supplies and support US soybean exports.

Tags: China, export, Brazil, soybean, USA