China’s era as the main importer of agricultural products is coming to an end – opinion

The era of China as the world’s dominant buyer of agricultural products may be coming to an end. What replaces it could reshape global markets and force producing countries to rethink their growth models, according to an analysis by former World Trade Organization (WTO) Director-General Pascal Lamy on Reuters.

He notes that over the past two decades, China has been the engine of growth in the global agricultural sector, with a deficit of $124.5 billion in agricultural imports in 2024. These flows are highly concentrated: Brazil supplies more than 60% of China’s soybeans and 40% of its beef, while the United States supplies another 30% of its soybeans.

For a generation, global agriculture has been organized around a simple model: ever-increasing demand from a single dominant buyer. That era is now coming to an end, Lamy says.

Recent climate shocks, geopolitical tensions, and trade disruptions have exposed the vulnerabilities of China’s highly concentrated agricultural supply chains. In response, the country’s leadership has made food self-sufficiency a key element of economic and national security.

The latest five-year plan, published in March, prioritizes food security over other challenges such as energy, property market recovery, local government debt, and cybersecurity.

“Early signs suggest that China is beginning to apply to its agricultural sector the same model that has made it a global leader in green technologies: combining public policy, capital, and innovation to boost domestic productivity, reduce its dependence on feed, and industrialize protein production,” Lamy says.

In the short term, import demand may begin to decline. Systemiq estimates that efficiency gains alone could cut demand for soybeans by a quarter this decade—nearly the equivalent of all U.S. soybean exports to China in 2024, worth about $12 billion.

Imports of beef, poultry, dairy, and eggs are also expected to decline significantly by 2030.

In the long term, this shift could become structural. By 2040, China could become a net exporter of poultry, dairy, eggs, and aquatic resources, making it a new competitor in global markets. By 2050, a new wave of innovation could make cultured meat production commercially viable.

“This shift represents a rebalancing of global agricultural markets. Markets are used to supply shocks that are usually temporary. But now we’re talking about a demand shock from the largest buyer that could change markets for decades to come,” Lamy adds.

Producer countries will be the first to feel the effects of this transition. For many of them, alternative markets are not large enough to compensate for the loss of demand. This carries the risks of falling exports, lower prices and farmers’ incomes, land values ​​and rural employment.

The environmental consequences are also mixed: falling demand may reduce pressure on land expansion, but increasing domestic production in China will increase the pressure on natural resources, including water and soil.

For producer countries, the main challenge is adaptation. A growth model built on constant Chinese demand is no longer guaranteed. Over-reliance on a single buyer is becoming a risk factor. At the same time, there is still time to react: increasing productivity, restoring degraded lands and developing more sustainable supply chains can help adapt to the new conditions, the analyst notes.

“The question now is whether China will become an exporter and how quickly producer countries can adapt to these changes,” Lamy concluded.

Tags: agricultural products, imports, China, corn, soybean, wheat