China’s corn production forecast to rise to 306 mln tons in 2026/27 MY

China’s corn production in the MY 2026/27 is forecast to increase to 306 mln tons, compared with 301.2 mln tons in the previous season. According to the US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS), production is expected to rise by approximately 1.6%, supported by expanded planted area and generally favorable weather conditions. However, high temperatures towards the end of the growing season limited yield potential in some regions.

As of October 15, China had harvested more than 70% of its autumn grain crops. Harvesting was over 80% complete in the Huang-Huai-Hai and northwestern regions, and more than 60% complete in northeastern China and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Corn remains the country’s main autumn-harvested crop, with planted area increasing compared with last year, according to Chinese authorities.

Despite higher production, China’s domestic corn consumption in the MY 2026/27 is forecast at 322 mln tons, up 1 mln tons year-on-year. Feed consumption is expected to account for 240 mln tons, while food, seed and industrial use will total 82 mln tons. USDA FAS forecasts corn imports at 6 mln tons, while ending stocks could decline by 10 mln tons to 165 mln tons.

Meanwhile, rising supplies of new-crop corn are putting pressure on domestic prices. Grain entering the market from northern and northeastern regions is prompting traders and feed manufacturers to adopt a cautious approach to purchases, anticipating further price declines. In addition, corn’s share in feed rations fell from 47% in January to 29% in August 2026, reflecting increased use of cheaper alternatives, including wheat, barley and sorghum.

Difficult conditions in China’s livestock sector, particularly pig farming, are adding further pressure on corn demand. Low pork prices and poor profitability are discouraging producers from building substantial feed grain inventories. Meanwhile, imported sorghum and barley stocks at southern ports have approached 2.4 mln tons. Feed grain imports are expected to reach around 7 mln tons in the final quarter of 2026, intensifying competition between corn and alternative feed grains.

Tags: China, corn