China may increase US corn imports under $17 bln trade agreement

China could significantly increase purchases of US corn under trade commitments to buy $17 bln worth of American agricultural products excluding soybeans. According to Ben Brown, an agricultural economist at the University of Missouri, China has recently stepped up corn imports due to domestic production challenges. This creates additional opportunities for US exporters, although the actual volume of future purchases remains uncertain.

According to Brown, the main commodity groups that have historically accounted for a significant share of US agricultural exports to China include corn, beef and cattle products, and cotton. Together, these categories represented around two-thirds of the relevant shipments. However, the potential to increase beef exports is limited by available supplies, while cotton export prospects are constrained by drought in the southern United States. Under these conditions, corn and corn products could play a key role in fulfilling China’s purchase commitments.

Additional support for trade could come from the new “30-for-30” framework, which could provide more favorable tariff treatment for approximately $30 bln worth of goods traded between the US and China. The US list includes several agricultural products, particularly corn, beef, and cotton. According to Brown, the inclusion of these commodities may indicate that both sides intend to create conditions for fulfilling commitments to increase Chinese purchases of US agricultural products.

However, China’s actual purchases of US agricultural products excluding soybeans remain insufficient to meet the stated $17 bln commitment. Despite some recovery in bilateral trade, shipments in these commodity categories have yet to increase significantly. Moreover, the new tariff framework does not automatically guarantee higher imports, as final purchase volumes will depend on the price competitiveness of US products and actual demand from Chinese importers.

Brown does not expect substantial progress in implementing the trade commitments before the end of the year, as negotiations between the US and China are continuing. Nevertheless, corn remains one of the most promising commodities for expanding bilateral agricultural trade. A potential increase in Chinese purchases could support US exports and reshape global corn trade flows, intensifying competition among major exporting countries.

Tags: China, corn, USA