China expected to cut soybean imports in 2026/27

China is projected to reduce its soybean imports to 95.5 million tonnes in the 2026/27 marketing year, down 7.6% from the previous season, according to the country’s Ministry of Agriculture. The decline is mainly attributed to weaker demand for soybean meal, driven by a shrinking pig herd in the country.

Soybean planting area in 2026/27 is also expected to decline slightly to 10.193 million hectares, down 0.6% year-on-year. The ministry said lower profitability compared to corn has reduced farmers’ incentive to expand soybean acreage.

For the current 2025/26 season, however, China raised its soybean import forecast to 103.3 million tonnes, supported by steady demand from large-scale pig and poultry producers. This continues to underpin strong consumption of soybean meal and crush activity.

Edible oil production in 2025/26 is projected to rise to 32.23 million tonnes, driven mainly by higher soybean oil output due to increased imports and processing volumes. In contrast, production in 2026/27 is expected to fall to 31.41 million tonnes as lower soybean imports reduce crushing activity and output of soybean oil declines.

Analysts note that the main pressure on the market in the coming season will come from weaker livestock demand and shifting feed consumption patterns, which could also influence global soybean balances.

Tags: China, soybean, imports