Canadian canola exports exceed forecasts, adding pressure to global prices

Canadian canola exports continue to outperform expectations, putting additional pressure on the global market. According to the Canadian Grain Commission, exports reached 305 thsd tons in the week ending July 12, up sharply from 52.5 thsd tons a week earlier.

Since the beginning of the 2026/27 marketing year, cumulative exports have reached 8.562 mln tons. Although this is 7.3% below the same period last season, it has already exceeded Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s annual export forecast of 8.4 mln tons. At the same time, deliveries from farmers have increased by 6.6% to 20.17 mln tons, while domestic crushing has risen by 8.9% to 11.867 mln tons.

Analysts say the early achievement of Canada’s export target points to ample canola supplies on the global market. This is expected to support steady import demand, particularly from China, while continuing to weigh on global prices.

Another factor likely to influence the market is China’s plan to allow private oilseed crushers to import Australian canola. The move is part of the ongoing normalization of trade relations between the two countries after several years of restrictions.

According to market analysts, large Canadian canola supplies together with broader sourcing options for China are likely to continue limiting upside potential for global prices of canola seed, canola oil, and canola meal.

Tags: Australia, China, Canada, rapeseed