Canada will harvest 8.4 mln tons of barley in the MY 2025/26

Canadian farmers have reduced their barley plantings in 2025, which will impact the feed grain market in the MY 2025/26, according to analyst Jerry Klassen at Canadian Cattlemen. According to Statistics Canada, 6.135 million acres of barley were planted this year, which is 4.2% less than in 2024 (6.405 million acres) and below the 10-year average (6.9 million acres). Barley production is expected to reach 8.4 million tonnes, slightly higher than the 8.144 million tonnes in 2024 but lower than the average of 8.745 million tonnes.

Low barley stocks at the end of the MY 2024/25, forecast at 500,000 tonnes (vs. 1.2 million tonnes in 2023/24), have driven up prices in July-August. Feed barley was priced at $315-320 per tonne in Lethbridge and $290-310 per tonne in Red Deer. Imported US corn ($305-310 per tonne) was cheaper, and Canada is forecast to import 2.0-2.5 million tonnes of corn in 2025/26, which could lower barley prices in the fall.

Barley exports are forecast at 2.2 million tonnes, with China as the main buyer, although volumes will depend on the Australian crop (12-12.5 million tonnes in MY 2025/26). Domestic feed barley consumption is estimated at 5.1 million tonnes, with ending stocks at 629,000 tonnes. This indicates a tight supply that could support prices.

In September-October, barley supply (1.0-1.1 million tonnes) will exceed demand (350,000 tonnes), which will lower prices, giving livestock farmers a chance to buy barley cheaper. A large supply of feed grains, particularly corn from the US and Brazil, is stabilizing the market, but farmers should monitor barley imports and exports for planning purposes.

Tags: barley, Canada