Canada faces malting barley shortage despite large harvest

Canada is expected to face a significant reduction in malting barley supplies in the MY 2026/27 despite relatively high overall production. According to the Canadian Malting Barley Technical Centre (CMBTC), less than 2 mln tons of barley will be available for malting, compared with 3 mln tons last year and the long-term average of approximately 2.5 mln tons. Meanwhile, Statistics Canada estimates the country’s total barley harvest at 9.7 mln tons, matching last year’s level. The main reason for the shortage of high-quality supplies was heavy rainfall in late August and early September, which caused pre-harvest sprouting and reduced the grain’s suitability for malting.

Due to quality issues, a significant share of Canadian barley will be diverted to feed markets or sold as lower-grade malting barley, which is purchased by some Chinese importers. Sprouted grain requires rapid processing, creating additional challenges for export shipments. The reduced availability of high-quality malting barley is already supporting higher prices, while the feed barley segment is under pressure from declining US corn prices. Another factor is weaker malt demand due to slowing growth in global beer consumption.

Meanwhile, global demand for feed barley remains substantial, primarily driven by China. According to USDA estimates, global barley imports reached approximately 35 mln tons in 2025/26, the second-highest level on record after 37 mln tons in 2020/21. China purchased around 14 mln tons, accounting for more than 40% of global import demand. Import growth was supported by restrictions on corn imports and the need for more affordable feed ingredients. Saudi Arabia was the second-largest importer, purchasing approximately 4.7 mln tons, while Turkey significantly increased its purchases due to a historically low domestic harvest.

For 2026/27, USDA forecasts global barley imports to decline to just over 30 mln tons. In particular, China’s purchases could fall to 13 mln tons, although the country will remain the world’s largest barley importer. Weaker global demand is also linked to recovering barley production in Turkey and other countries in the Middle East and North Africa. At the same time, smaller harvests in some exporting countries and restricted access to maritime shipping for Ukraine and Russia could constrain grain supplies to international markets. Australia, where a record barley harvest is expected, will play an important role in meeting import demand.

As a result, the Canadian barley market is expected to experience divergent price trends in the new season. A shortage of malting-quality grain will support higher prices for this segment, while increased feed barley supplies and a projected decline in global imports could put additional pressure on feed barley prices. Canadian exporters are already assessing the quality of the new crop, including pre-harvest sprouting and germination rates, to determine its suitability for malting. Given the limited availability of high-quality barley, international buyers may increasingly turn to alternative suppliers, particularly Australia, France and Argentina.

Tags: barley, Canada, malting barley