Brazil’s soybean crop could decline due to El Niño — COFCO

Brazil’s soybean production could decline slightly in the 2026/27 season despite a further expansion in planted area. El Niño will be the main risk to the new crop as weather conditions could negatively affect yields, Luis Noto, head of grains and oilseeds at COFCO in Brazil, told Reuters.

COFCO expects Brazil’s soybean area to continue expanding, but at a much slower pace than in recent years. Lower farmer margins and tighter access to credit are expected to limit acreage growth.

At the same time, additional acreage may not be enough to offset a potential decline in yields. El Niño typically brings increased rainfall to southern Brazil but can also raise the risk of dry conditions in central and northern regions, where a significant share of the country’s soybeans are produced.

Weather and crop productivity will therefore be the key factors for the 2026/27 season, according to COFCO. Planting of Brazil’s new soybean crop is expected to begin in mid-September, with weather developments in the following months determining production prospects.

COFCO does not expect a shortage of Brazilian soybeans, however. Even if the new crop declines slightly, supplies should remain sufficient to meet domestic demand and maintain strong exports, supported by the record crop harvested in the 2025/26 season.

Tags: Brazil, soybean, China