Brazilian soybean meal becomes cheaper than Argentine product amid logistics disruptions

Brazilian soybean meal export prices have fallen below Argentine levels, with the discount reaching its widest level since January 2026. According to Platts, Brazilian soybean meal was assessed at $401.57/t FOB Paranagua on October 21, compared with $412.59/t FOB Up River in Argentina. As a result, Brazilian product became approximately $11/t cheaper, although Argentine soybean meal typically trades at a discount due to geographical and logistical factors affecting export shipments.

One of the main reasons for this price reversal has been logistics disruptions at Brazil’s port of Paranagua, a major soybean meal export hub. Persistent rainfall in October has delayed vessel loading operations and caused substantial congestion. According to market participants, some vessels are facing waiting times of up to 40 days, increasing demurrage costs and putting pressure on export premiums. As a result, the Brazilian soybean meal premium over CBOT futures fell from $31 to $16 per short ton in just one week.

Improving soybean crushing profitability in Brazil is adding further pressure on prices. According to Platts calculations, crushing margins reached $38.33/t on October 21, compared with around $12/t in August and $17/t in early September. More favorable economic conditions are encouraging processors and increasing the potential supply of soybean meal to export markets. Brazil remains the world’s second-largest soybean meal exporter after Argentina.

According to preliminary Brazilian foreign trade statistics, the country exported 1.1 mln tons of soybean meal during the first 11 working days of October, up 3% from the corresponding period last year. If the current shipment pace continues through the end of the month, October exports could reach approximately 2.3 mln tons, exceeding S&P Global Energy CERA’s forecast of 2.19 mln tons. This indicates that export shipments remain active despite significant pressure on port infrastructure.

Improving prospects for Brazil’s new soybean crop are also influencing the market outlook. More than 20% of the planned area for the MY 2026/27 crop has already been planted, while concerns about the potential negative impact of El Niño are gradually easing. CERA analysts forecast soybean production at 177 mln tons, creating conditions for further growth in crushing and soybean meal exports. Increased Brazilian supplies could intensify competition with Argentine exporters and limit upward pressure on global soybean meal prices.

Tags: Brazil, soybean meal, Argentina