Brazilian beef exporters pause sales to China as margins shrink

Brazilian beef processors have started pulling offers from the Chinese market as a stronger real and rising domestic cattle prices squeeze export margins. The Brazilian currency strengthened to around 5 reais/$, its strongest level since May 2026, reducing exporters’ local-currency returns.

According to one market participant, the exchange-rate move cut export margins by around $300/t. At a forequarter value of $7,700/t CFR China, a 4% currency move translates into a loss of about $308/t, while at $7,300/t the impact is around $292/t.

Further pressure is coming from steadily rising cattle prices in Brazil. Under these conditions, exporters need to raise selling prices significantly to preserve margins, but Chinese buyers have so far been unwilling to accept the higher levels.

Chinese market activity has also remained limited during the Golden Week holiday on October 1–7. Brazilian exporters were offering forequarters at around $7,700/t CFR China for shipment in the first half of November, while spot-market indications in China remained lower.

Market participants expect negotiations to resume after the holiday, but the gap between sellers’ asking prices and buyers’ bids may persist. Further trade activity will depend mainly on movements in the real and domestic cattle prices in Brazil.

Tags: China, Brazil, prices, Beef cattle