Better harvest could cut Morocco’s French wheat purchases by 1 mln tons

Morocco could reduce purchases of French wheat by around 1 mln tons in MY 2026/27 thanks to a sharp recovery in its domestic crop. Wheat production has more than doubled to 4.4 mln tons following improved weather conditions and better rainfall.

According to French grain industry estimates, France could ship around 2.5 mln tons of wheat to Morocco between September 2026 and May 2027, compared with 3.5 mln tons a season earlier. French exporters have already sold about 600 thsd tons to Morocco for October.

Despite the stronger crop, Morocco still needs sizeable imports to rebuild domestic stocks. Current inventories are estimated at around 600 thsd tons, equivalent to roughly two months of domestic consumption.

Importers are also facing higher European wheat prices. To offset the gap between import costs and domestic selling prices, state grain agency ONICL raised the soft wheat import subsidy for October to 44.48 dirhams/quintal from 20.8 dirhams/quintal in September.

Uncertainty in the Black Sea region remains an additional factor that could support Moroccan demand for wheat from France, Germany and other European suppliers. At the same time, higher import flows could put additional pressure on the country’s ports and trucking capacity.

Tags: wheat, Morocco, France