Brazil exhausts China beef quota as 67% duty applies above limit

Brazil exhausted its annual beef export quota to China of 1.106 mln tons in early October. Any additional shipments above the limit are subject to a 55% safeguard surcharge, which together with the standard 12% tariff brings the total duty burden to 67%.

The restriction is significant for Brazilian exporters because China is their largest market. In 2025, Brazil shipped around 1.65 mln tons of fresh beef to China, with the Chinese market accounting for about 48% of the country’s total beef exports.

The high duty makes shipments above the quota economically unattractive. Some meat processors have already reduced production aimed at China and are looking for alternative buyers. Brazilian meat industry association Abiec estimates that the country’s total beef exports could fall by around 10% y/y in 2026.

Brazil is seeking to expand sales to the US, South Korea, Indonesia and other markets in Asia and the Middle East. At the same time, exporters may delay some shipments until November so that cargoes arrive in China in January and are counted against the 2027 quota.

China introduced the safeguard mechanism for three years to protect its domestic livestock sector from rising imports. Brazil’s quota is set to increase to 1.128 mln tons in 2027 and 1.151 mln tons in 2028, but both volumes remain below the country’s recent actual export levels.

Tags: China, Brazil, Beef cattle