Black Sea wheat pushes Australian grain out of Southeast Asian markets

Buyers of lower-protein milling wheat for shipment to Southeast Asia are increasingly shifting toward Black Sea origins. The move comes as Australian Standard White wheat with a minimum 9% protein content (ASW9) has become significantly more expensive, while offers of Argentine wheat remain limited.

This week, sellers offered Black Sea wheat with 11.5% protein for June shipment to Indonesia at $283–285 per tonne CFR, at least $10 below comparable ASW9 offers. This makes Black Sea origin more competitive, especially since the typical premium buyers are willing to pay for Australian wheat rarely exceeds $5 per tonne.

Despite Black Sea offers trading at least $7 above buyer bids, recent deals around $280 per tonne suggest stronger demand compared with ASW9, where bid–offer gaps remain at least $15. This indicates a clearer shift in purchasing interest toward Black Sea supply.

Australian wheat is also under pressure from limited farmer selling and a strong national currency. The Australian dollar has approached its highest level against the US dollar in nearly four years, further increasing export costs and weakening competitiveness.

At the same time, Argentina’s export capacity is constrained by a much higher share of feed-quality wheat in the 2025/26 crop, accounting for around 79% compared with just 20% a year earlier. Grain exports are also competing with strong corn and soybean flows during the harvest period.

In contrast, feed wheat supply from the Black Sea region has remained tight throughout the season, narrowing the price gap between feed and milling grades. Australia still retains some tariff-driven advantages in Southeast Asian markets such as the Philippines, but overall competition in the region’s wheat trade continues to intensify.

Tags: prices, Black Sea region, wheat, Australia