Black Sea wheat export trends

UkrAgroConsult

Black Sea wheat export trends vary by country. Exports from Ukraine and Russia are slowing but remain above last season’s levels. In contrast, shipments from Romanian and Bulgarian ports are accelerating, although they are still below last year’s pace.

Part of Ukraine’s grain exports is being redirected to the Port of Constanța, but shipments along this route are being hampered by low water levels on the Danube. Barges cannot be fully loaded, significantly increasing transportation costs. This route is likely to become economically viable only if global grain prices rise substantially, which is not currently the case. Lower domestic grain prices in Ukraine can only partially offset the growing logistics costs.

What can be expected in the coming weeks? This season is likely to differ markedly from the traditional pattern. Normally, wheat exports increase sharply in August, but this year the main growth is expected to come from the CVB ports (Constanța, Varna, and Burgas), while exports through Ukrainian and Russian Black Sea ports are expected to remain constrained by elevated risks.

Wheat Exports From Black Sea Ports, KMT

*POC – Pivdenne, Odesa, Chornomorsk

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Tags: wheat, Ukraine, Russia, Bulgaria, export, Romania