Black Sea port shutdown could cost Ukraine $70 mln in export revenue per day — opinion

Every day of halted operations at Ukraine’s Black Sea ports costs the country about $70 mln in lost export revenue, while a prolonged suspension of seaborne exports could put additional pressure on the hryvnia. This assessment was made by Oleksandr Khmelevskyi, PhD in Economics and independent analyst, in comments to AgroPortal.ua.

According to him, Ukraine’s foreign trade deficit reached $28.3 bln in the first half of 2026, meaning that even a few months of disrupted exports through the Black Sea ports would widen the deficit by several billion dollars. This could force the National Bank of Ukraine to increase foreign exchange interventions, reducing the country’s international reserves.

As of July 1, the NBU’s international reserves stood at $51.3 bln, which, in the analyst’s view, is sufficient to maintain exchange rate stability through the end of 2026 even if port disruptions continue. However, in order to preserve reserves, the central bank may allow a faster depreciation of the hryvnia. Khmelevskyi estimates the exchange rate could reach UAH 47–48 per US dollar and UAH 56–57 per euro by the end of the year.

The agricultural sector is expected to suffer the most, as the bulk of Ukraine’s grain and oilseed exports has traditionally been shipped through the Black Sea ports. With the harvest now underway, export disruptions could create a shortage of grain storage capacity. According to the Ukrainian Agrarian Council, around 30 million tons of surplus agricultural products could accumulate on the domestic market if the ports remain closed.

Alternative logistics routes are currently unable to fully replace maritime exports. Danube ports continue to face security risks and low water levels, while rail and road transport capacity remains limited. The possibility of renewed blockades at Ukraine’s western border also poses an additional risk.

The analyst believes that a prolonged shutdown of the Black Sea ports would weigh on the broader economy by reducing GDP, lowering budget revenues, and weakening living standards. Strengthening air defense around port infrastructure is seen as one of the key prerequisites for restoring maritime exports, although completely eliminating risks to shipping under current conditions is unlikely.

Tags: Ukraine, export, Ukrainian ports