Black Sea export disruptions reduce global sunflower oil supply

Export disruptions in the Black Sea region are reducing the availability of sunflower oil and related products on the global market. Restrictions at Ukrainian ports and an overall decline in cargo flows from Ukraine and Russia are creating conditions for firmer prices, after ample global supplies and competition from other vegetable oils had previously weighed on the market.

The decline in Ukrainian shipments is particularly significant for the market. Ukraine has historically accounted for around 45% of global sunflower oil exports, but port restrictions and infrastructure damage have significantly reduced its effective export capacity. At the same time, dry bulk exports from the wider Black Sea region declined markedly over the summer.

Supply is being further constrained by Russia, which nearly doubled its sunflower oil export duty in September. Combined with shipping disruptions, this is reducing the availability of competitively priced Russian supplies on international markets and increasing risks for importers.

Higher production in the EU could partially offset the decline in supply, with the sunflower crop forecast to increase by around 9% year-on-year to approximately 9.5 mln tons. However, the larger European harvest is unlikely to fully compensate for significant disruptions to supplies from Ukraine and Russia, particularly for Asian buyers that rely heavily on Black Sea-origin sunflower oil.

Analysts expect sunflower oil prices to strengthen if Black Sea export disruptions persist. The impact could become particularly noticeable for shipments in late Q4 2026 and Q1 2027, especially if port operations deteriorate further and ocean freight costs continue to rise.

Tags: restrictions, war, Ukraine, Russia, sunflower oil, EU