Black Sea export disruptions boost demand for French wheat

Disruptions to Black Sea shipping are improving the competitiveness of French wheat in North African markets. Rising freight costs, war-risk premiums and uncertainty over contract execution are narrowing the price advantage of Russian wheat, prompting buyers in Egypt and Sudan to turn increasingly to French grain.

In late August, Russian 12.5% protein wheat was priced at around $217/t FOB, compared with $280/t FOB for French 11% protein wheat. However, freight from Russian Black Sea ports to Egypt rose to $60/t, while recent French wheat deals were concluded at around $290/t CIF. As a result, the gap in delivered costs has narrowed significantly.

In the coming days, two Handysize vessels are expected to load around 60 thsd tons of wheat at the French port of La Pallice for Egypt. Another French wheat cargo is already being loaded for Sudan. France is also benefiting from the quality of this year’s crop, with higher-than-normal protein levels and lower moisture, making French wheat easier to substitute for Black Sea grain.

The shipment to Sudan will be France’s first in around 18 years, with the previous French wheat cargo delivered to the market in August 2008. Sudan imported around 2.7 mln tons of wheat in the 2025/26 season, while Russia accounted for almost 90% of the country’s wheat import value in the first half of 2026.

Market participants do not yet expect importers to shift away from Russian wheat on a large scale, but view the latest shipments as a sign of changing trade flows. If Black Sea logistics disruptions and high freight rates persist, French wheat could strengthen its position in North African and Red Sea markets.

Tags: wheat, Black Sea, Egypt, export, France, Sudan