Black Sea export concerns send wheat prices sharply higher

Global wheat prices surged on July 15 as tensions in the Black Sea region intensified. The market was driven by growing concerns over further disruptions to grain exports following shipping restrictions and renewed Russian attacks on Ukraine’s port infrastructure.

On the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), September soft red winter wheat futures jumped 5.04% to $248.93/t. September hard red winter wheat futures in Kansas City climbed to $265.01/t, while spring wheat futures in Minneapolis rose to $252.24/t. Some contracts gained more than 40 cents per bushel in a single trading session.

The market also received support after Taiwan purchased 98.15 thsd tons of U.S. wheat. Traders are now awaiting the USDA’s weekly export sales report, with Reuters analysts expecting U.S. wheat sales for the week to range between 250 thsd and 600 thsd tons.

The European wheat market also posted strong gains. On Euronext (MATIF) in Paris, September milling wheat futures rose 7.31% to €231.50/t ($264.40/t), their highest level since March 2025. December futures advanced to €234.75/t ($268.11/t).

Despite the ongoing wheat harvest in both Russia and Ukraine, the market remains primarily focused on risks to Black Sea exports. For now, logistics concerns continue to outweigh fundamental supply factors and are driving global wheat prices.

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