Black Sea disruptions open North African wheat market to France

Disruptions to Black Sea shipping are improving the competitiveness of French wheat in North Africa and the Middle East. Higher freight costs, war-risk insurance premiums and growing uncertainty over contract execution have narrowed the traditional price advantage of Russian wheat, Fastmarkets reports.

Although the FOB price gap remains significant, the delivered-cost picture is different. As of August 26, Russian wheat with 12.5% protein was assessed at around $217 per tonne, compared with $280 per tonne for French wheat with 11% protein. Recent French wheat cargoes for Egypt were sold at around $290 per tonne CIF. Meanwhile, freight from Russian Black Sea ports to Egypt rose to $60 per tonne amid heightened shipping risks.

French wheat is already moving toward buyers. Two Handysize vessels are expected to arrive at La Pallice in the coming days to load around 60,000 tonnes of wheat for Egypt, while another French cargo is being loaded for Sudan. Market sources said the Egyptian cargoes were sold by traders Bunge and InVivo. Demand is also being supported by the quality of this year’s French crop, which has generally shown higher-than-normal protein levels and lower moisture, making it easier to substitute for Russian and Ukrainian wheat.

France’s return to the Sudanese market is particularly notable. Sudan has not imported French wheat since August 2008, making the latest cargo the first in around 18 years. Sudan imported about 2.7 million tonnes of wheat in the 2025/26 marketing year, while Russia accounted for almost 90% of the value of the country’s grain and flour imports in the first half of 2026, worth around $341 million.

Traders do not expect Russian wheat to be fully displaced. However, if disruptions to Black Sea shipping continue, France could become one of the most competitive suppliers with reliable execution into North Africa and the Red Sea region. Additional pressure on Russian exports is coming from more expensive alternative routes: rerouting grain from southern Russia to the Baltic Sea could add $30–50 per tonne to logistics costs.

Tags: Egypt, France, Sudan, wheat