Biomethane could meet up to 70% of shipping’s low-carbon fuel demand by 2030

Global biomethane production could reach 21 bcm by 2030, theoretically covering around 70% of shipping’s initial demand for low-carbon fuels. The estimate comes from the Mærsk Mc-Kinney Møller Center for Zero Carbon Shipping, which projects shipping demand at around 30 bcm of biomethane equivalent.

Under the base-case scenario, biomethane production is expected to grow by around 15% annually to reach 21 bcm in 2030. With stronger policy support and annual growth of 38%, production could rise to 52 bcm. Feedstock potential is considerably higher, with infrastructure, certification and regulation remaining the main constraints.

A key condition for large-scale biomethane use in shipping could be the introduction of an international mass-balancing system. This would allow certified biomethane injected into existing gas grids to be credited as marine fuel without requiring separate physical supply chains to ports. Without such a mechanism, scaling up the market by 2030 would be significantly more difficult and expensive.

Biomethane is seen as a bridging fuel for shipping decarbonisation during 2030–2040. However, competition for supplies could intensify after 2030 from road transport, aviation, industry and heating. The maritime sector’s ability to use the fuel will also depend on the number of vessels equipped with engines capable of running on liquefied biomethane.

According to the researchers, under one scenario shipping could consume up to 56% of projected global biomethane production in 2030. Achieving this potential will largely depend on future IMO rules, the development of certification systems, and investment in vessels and fuel infrastructure.

Tags: shipping, fuel, biomethane