Barley prices in Ukraine have stopped falling and have a chance to grow

Rainy and cool weather this week in Ukraine has slowed the ripening and harvesting of barley in the central and western regions, reducing supply pressure and leading to a stabilization of export prices.

Rising prices for corn and barley in Europe and restrictions on grain supplies from the Russian Azov ports should have supported export prices more strongly, but heavy shelling of Black Sea ports is reducing trader activity.

As of July 13, 1.842 million tons of barley were threshed in Ukraine from 417.7 thousand hectares (28% of the area) with an average yield of 4.41 tons/hectare, which is 40% higher than last year’s due to high indicators in the south.

At the same time, in central and western Ukraine, the yield of winter barley decreased from the usual 7-9 t/ha to 5-6 t/ha, but against the background of good yields of spring barley, total production may exceed the USDA forecast of 5.5 million t.

Purchase prices for feed barley in Ukraine, after falling to 9000-9400 UAH/t during the week, rose to 9400-9600 UAH/t with delivery to Black Sea ports due to the increase in the dollar to hryvnia exchange rate by 0.7%. Export dollar prices for barley remain at a low level of 183-190 $/t with delivery to ports, despite the increase in prices for feed wheat to 195-198 $/t, for corn of the old harvest – to 211-214 $/t and for the new harvest – to 215-218 $/t.

Demand prices at domestic elevators increased by 100-200 UAH/t to 8400-8800 UAH/t EXW, which stimulated farmers’ sales.

Active strikes by Ukrainian drones on Russian ships in the Sea of Azov have sharply limited exports from the Russian Federation, which is also supporting prices for wheat and barley. But this has not yet affected prices in Ukraine, where risks to supplies from Black Sea ports have also increased after port terminals and ships carrying grain were attacked in the past few days.

According to Agritel, in France, winter feed barley prices for July delivery rose by €14/t to €200.5/t or $229/t FOB Rouen in the week, supported by a further €5/t increase in August corn futures on the Euronext Paris exchange to €240/t or $274/t on expectations of lower production in France. Meanwhile, spring malting barley prices fell by €1/t to €222/t FOB Cray in the week, reducing the premium for malting barley over feed barley prices from €37 to €22/t.

According to the USDA forecast, global barley production in the MY 2026/27 will increase compared to the previous season from 154.5 to 155.67 million tons, but the harvest of the main exporters will decrease: in the EU – by 3.2 million tons to 53.2 million tons (56.4 million tons), in Australia – by 2.5 to 14.1 (16.6) million tons, in Russia – by 0.9 to 18.5 (19.4) million tons. At the same time, in Turkey, the barley harvest will increase by 3.7 million tons to 8.8 million tons (5.1 million tons), and in Iran – by 0.5 million tons to 3.5 million tons (3 million tons). For Ukraine, the forecast is left at a pessimistic level of 5.5 million tons (5.6 million tons in 2025/26 MY and 5.8 million tons in MY 2024/25).

Tags: Ukraine, barley, prices