Baltic ports cannot offset Russia’s lost Black Sea grain exports

Russia has significantly increased wheat exports through Baltic ports, but alternative routes remain unable to compensate for reduced shipments via the Black Sea. According to analytics company Kpler, combined grain and oilseed exports from Russian and Ukrainian Black Sea ports fell by 63% year-on-year in July–September 2026. Meanwhile, analysts recorded no grain-carrying vessels departing from Novorossiysk in October. Despite the active redirection of cargoes to the Baltic, overland routes and the Caspian Sea, these alternatives together replace less than half of the export capacity lost in the Black Sea.

In September 2026, Russian Baltic ports handled more than 1 mln tons of wheat, significantly exceeding previous record levels. Shipments increased further to over 1.5 mln tons in October. This growth was achieved despite limited grain storage facilities and specialized handling capacity. Russia also expanded overland exports and shipments through the Caspian Sea. The Arctic port of Murmansk was expected to begin handling wheat exports, but as of early November, Kpler had not recorded any completed wheat loading operations there.

The rapid increase in grain shipments through the Baltic has led to growing congestion at port facilities and longer vessel queues. At Ust-Luga, 30 vessels were waiting in September and 29 in October, compared with no such queues a year earlier. Analysts note that Baltic terminals were not designed to handle such large grain export volumes, limiting further growth due to constraints in storage, loading and vessel handling capacity.

Redirecting grain from the Black Sea to the Baltic also significantly increases transportation costs. According to Kpler, the sea route from Ust-Luga to Alexandria in Egypt is approximately 3.5 times longer than the route from Novorossiysk. Additional costs arise from transporting grain inland to northern ports. In October, the average distance of global grain and oilseed shipments increased by 13%, while total shipping activity measured in ton-miles rose by 11.5%. Meanwhile, ample bulk carrier availability is limiting broader increases in freight rates, although shipping costs from the Black Sea remain high due to security risks.

Disruptions to Black Sea logistics are already affecting international grain trade, particularly in North Africa and the Middle East. Egypt reduced wheat imports to 1.7 mln tons in July–September 2026, compared with 3.8 mln tons a year earlier, relying on previously accumulated stocks rather than purchasing more expensive grain from alternative origins. According to Kpler, as long as Black Sea port operations remain restricted, Russian exporters will be forced to rely on more expensive and less efficient routes that cannot fully restore export volumes.

Tags: Russia, grain, grain export, Black Sea region, Baltic