Baltic and Caspian routes offset only 25% of Russia’s grain export losses through Black Sea ports

Alternative routes through the Baltic and Caspian regions have offset only about 25% of grain export losses through Russia’s southern corridor, according to Oleg Knyazkov, deputy head of the Industry Expertise Center at Rosselkhozbank. The bank estimates that the share of Azov-Black Sea ports in Russian grain exports could fall by 18 percentage points to 63% in 2026.

The Baltic has absorbed the largest additional volumes, with its share of total grain exports rising by 9 percentage points to 13%. The Caspian route gained about 3 percentage points and now accounts for around 8% of shipments.

However, these routes do not have enough capacity to offset lower shipments through southern ports. As a result, more grain is expected to remain in producing regions, with Rosselkhozbank forecasting higher carryover stocks in the Southern, Volga and Siberian districts.

The bank estimates Russia’s 2026 grain harvest at 135 mln tons, down from 141 mln tons a year earlier. At the same time, exports could fall from 49 mln to 40 mln tons, increasing the accumulation of grain on the domestic market.

Rosselkhozbank forecasts that grain stocks could rise from 95 mln to 107 mln tons by the end of 2026. The bank describes the resulting supply surplus as unusual, while limited alternative logistics capacity remains a key pressure on the domestic market.

Tags: export, grain