Australia expects a 21% decrease in winter crop yields in the new season — ABARES

According to a June report by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Science (ABARES), the area sown to winter crops in the country in MY 2026/27  will decrease by 7% year-on-year and will amount to 23.6 million hectares. The key reasons were the increase in resource costs and regional drought. The combined production of wheat, barley and rapeseed will also decrease noticeably, but still remain above the multi-year average.

According to the bureau’s estimates, the gross harvest of winter crops in the new season will fall by 21% to 54.5 million tonnes. This dynamics reflects both the compression of the wedge and the expected decline in yields. However, the figure will still exceed the average level for the decade by 4% and will become the seventh largest in the entire history of observations.

ABARES emphasizes that the forecast is vulnerable to weather and supply conditions. “Uncertainty remains about fertilizer availability, and the likelihood of a dry winter has increased. To achieve the forecasted yield figures, it is critical to obtain sufficient and timely amounts of fertilizer, as well as the necessary precipitation,” analysts note.

Wheat will suffer the most drastic reduction. Its sowings will decrease by 12% immediately to 10.9 million hectares, which will be the lowest since the 2021/20 season. The reason is the decrease in profitability compared to other crops and extremely dry conditions in the northern agricultural regions. Wheat production, according to ABARES, will decrease by 26% to 26.7 million tons. This is 23% below the five-year average.

Unlike wheat, analysts predict an expansion of barley sowing. Due to high prices and relatively lower fertilizer demand, the area under the crop will increase by 4% to 5 million hectares. However, the dry scenario will still lead to a decrease in gross harvest: minus 15% to 14.1 million tonnes. However, this volume is 2% ahead of the five-year average.

The area under rapeseed will decrease by 6% to 3.5 million hectares in MY 2026/27. Production is forecast to decrease to 6.2 million tonnes in MY 2026/27, which is 20% less than in MY 2025/26 and 13% below the five-year average.

ABARES separately records the impact of the conflict in the Middle East. Disruptions in global supplies of liquid fuels and fertilizers have resulted in significant increases in the cost of raw materials for Australian crop production, although physical shortages remain limited. The exception has been episodic disruptions with fuel directly in the planting season. If tensions in the region persist, high resource costs could become entrenched in the long term and negatively affect the final production volumes in Australia.

Tags: crop forecast, Australia, barley, wheat, rapeseed