USDA forecasts 13% decline in Canada’s wheat crop for 2026/27

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts Canada’s wheat production to decline by 13% in the MY 2026/27 compared with last season’s record harvest. According to the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), wheat output is projected at 34.6 mln tons, down from 39.9 mln tons in 2025/26.

The expected decline is mainly attributed to reduced planted area and unfavorable weather during spring wheat planting. Excessive rainfall and prolonged cool temperatures across the Prairie Provinces delayed planting and crop emergence, increasing the risk of lower yields and potential damage from early autumn frosts.

Despite the difficult start, crop conditions remain generally favorable in several regions. As of late June, 91% of Saskatchewan’s spring wheat crop was rated good to excellent, while the share in Alberta stood at 70% due to heavy rainfall in the province’s northeastern and central growing areas. Meanwhile, durum wheat production is expected to be strong, supported by favorable conditions in southwestern Saskatchewan and southeastern Alberta.

With a smaller harvest expected, FAS projects Canada’s wheat exports to decline to 27.9 mln tons in 2026/27 from the record 29.9 mln tons shipped in the previous marketing year. Export competitiveness may also be affected by the Canadian dollar, which has weakened slightly against the US dollar instead of strengthening as previously expected.

Canada is traditionally among the world’s five largest wheat exporters. In the MY 2025/26, it ranked as the third-largest wheat exporter, behind Russia and the European Union. As a result, lower Canadian production and exports could influence global wheat market balances in the coming season.

Tags: Canada, wheat, crop forecast