Asian importers are switching to Ukrainian wheat

After a long decline, Ukrainian wheat exports have begun to recover due to the revival of global demand, primarily from Asian countries. At the same time, the market is increasingly responding to weather risks in the USA and France, where the condition of crops is deteriorating and concerns about the harvest are growing. Against this background, Black Sea grain is becoming more competitive, and importers are starting to contract supplies for the new season more actively. This was reported by the analytical department of the agricultural cooperative PUSK, established within the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council (VAR).

“World wheat production in the new season may amount to about 790 million tons, while Ukraine will harvest approximately 23-24 million tons of grain. At the same time, the condition of crops in the USA is constantly deteriorating and wheat production may decrease from 54 million tons to 42 million tons due to a lack of precipitation. France is also entering a period of moisture deficit, which may worsen the prospects for the European harvest,” analysts note. Against the backdrop of weather risks, the world wheat balance is gradually becoming more tense. “For now, large stocks are holding back the rise in wheat prices. The market will most likely see the main price movement in August-September,” the PUSK predicts.

For Ukraine, the key factor supporting the wheat market is the activation of demand from Asia. After weak trade rates in winter and early spring, importers have begun to actively build up stocks.

“After weak trade rates in winter and early spring, in May Ukraine has already exported over 540 thousand tons of wheat, and by the end of the month the volume may reach 1 million tons. The main buyers of Ukrainian wheat remain Asian countries, which, against the backdrop of risks in the USA, are reorienting themselves towards the Black Sea origin of grain. They are already looking for supplies even for the autumn months.”Ukrainian wheat currently remains the cheapest offer on the market: deliveries to Indonesia are estimated at $285-290 per ton, while Australian and American wheat is over $300 per ton,” the PUSK adds.

Tags: Ukraine, export, prices, wheat, Asia