Argentina’s soybean crop revised lower

Although Argentina’s soybean crop for the 2023-24 marketing year recently was revised lower due to a recent stretch of hot and dry weather, production is still forecast to nearly double last year’s output, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

The FAS lowered its estimate by 1 million tonnes, to 49.5 million, in a Global Agricultural Information Network report released on March 14. Last year’s drought-stricken soybean harvest yielded only 25 million tonnes, the lowest output in Argentina since the turn of the century.

The FAS cautioned that weather forecasts for Argentina’s main agricultural regions through April indicate a mix of higher-than-normal temperatures and varying precipitation levels due to the current El Niño weather pattern.

“Although the harvest will be much improved from the previous year, the situation remains critical at this juncture according to several contacts,” the FAS said. “Optimism still abounds about the production volume of this year, but producers (believe) low global prices will limit their returns when they expected a large rebound from last year’s disastrous crop.”

Due to the FAS’ downward revision in production, the country’s soybean crush is projected 1 million tonnes lower from the agency’s previous forecast. However, crush is seen significantly rising year-on-year, up 47% from 2022-23 to 39 million tonnes.

Tags: soybean, Argentina, crop forecast