Argentina could boost corn exports to record levels amid Black Sea disruptions

Argentina’s corn exports could reach a record 3.9 mln tons in October 2026, exceeding the historical average for the month by 67%. According to the Rosario Grain Exchange (BCR), Argentine corn shipments between March and October of the MY 2025/26 could total 34.2 mln tons, surpassing the previous record of 32.5 mln tons set during the same period of the 2020/21 season. Export growth is being supported by logistics disruptions in the Black Sea, reduced export activity in Brazil and strong domestic corn demand in the United States.

According to BCR, Argentina could export 17.1 mln tons of corn during July–October, the second-highest volume on record and more than 7 mln tons above the corresponding period of the previous season. Meanwhile, registered export sales have already reached 39 mln tons, while total exports for the MY 2025/26 could reach as much as 45 mln tons.

One factor strengthening Argentina’s position has been difficulties affecting Ukrainian corn exports. Attacks on Black Sea ports and shipping restrictions are complicating grain shipments to international markets during the peak harvest period. According to figures cited by BCR, Ukraine had exported only around 138 thsd tons of corn since the beginning of October, compared with typical monthly shipments exceeding 1.5 mln tons. This is creating additional opportunities for Argentine exporters in traditional markets for Ukrainian grain.

Meanwhile, Brazil is recording lower export activity compared with previous years. During March–September, the country shipped slightly more than 13.9 mln tons of corn to international markets, 32% below the average for recent years. One contributing factor is growing domestic corn processing for biofuel production. In September, biofuel producers used 2.23 mln tons of corn, up 24% year-on-year. During January–September, corn consumption for this purpose exceeded 18.9 mln tons, representing a 22% annual increase.

US corn exports remained strong in September at approximately 7.02 mln tons, although the pace of shipments has shown signs of slowing in recent weeks. At the same time, substantial domestic industrial demand, particularly from ethanol producers, continues to influence the US corn balance. According to BCR, the combination of these factors, Black Sea logistics restrictions and reduced Brazilian export activity is creating favorable conditions for further growth in Argentine corn exports.

Tags: Argentina, corn, export, Black Sea region