Alternative routes can replace no more than half of Russia’s grain exports

Even under favorable conditions, alternative routes could replace no more than half of the grain volumes previously exported through Russia’s Azov-Black Sea ports. With southern port capacity severely restricted, exporters are redirecting cargoes to the Baltic, the Caspian Sea, the Russian Far East and overland border crossings.

The scale of the logistical shift is substantial. Last season, 46.3 mln tons of grain, or almost 90% of Russia’s total seaborne grain exports, were shipped through Azov-Black Sea ports. By comparison, Russian Baltic ports handled only about 1 mln tons. By mid-August, rail applications for grain shipments to northwestern ports had exceeded 5 mln tons, while more than 2 mln tons of applications were directed towards Latvian ports.

However, the Baltic route also has limited capacity. Estimates of Russia’s effective grain export potential through its northwestern ports range from 1.2–2.4 mln to 5–7 mln tons per year. Additional volumes could be shipped through the Baltic states, with some estimates suggesting Russia could export 5–6 mln tons per season through these ports, potentially rising to 10 mln tons if Estonian terminals are actively used.

The Caspian Sea and the Russian Far East provide additional alternatives, although their potential remains small compared with southern ports. The Caspian route, primarily serving Iran, could handle up to 3 mln tons of grain per season. Another 2–2.5 mln tons could potentially be shipped through the Far East, mainly to China, although the lack of specialized grain terminals limits expansion of this route.

Therefore, even the combined use of the Baltic, Caspian Sea, Far East and overland routes will not fully replace lost southern export capacity. According to the Russian Grain Union, alternative routes could compensate for only around half of the lost volumes even in the best-case scenario. If restrictions on southern ports persist at least until the end of the year, recovering the lost export volumes during the season will no longer be possible.

Tags: Russia, export, grain, wheat, restrictions