A new El Niño phase begins to develop after the end of La Niña

Following the end of the La Niña climate pattern, a warm El Niño phase is beginning to develop in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Observations show warming subsurface waters that could gradually raise sea surface temperatures during 2026. Scientists link the shift to strong westerly wind bursts that are pushing warm water from the western Pacific toward the eastern part of the ocean, supporting the transition within the ENSO climate cycle.

Meteorologists say atmospheric effects from El Niño could start to appear in the second half of 2026, with the strongest influence expected during the winter of 2026/27. Such changes typically affect rainfall and temperature patterns in key agricultural regions: South America often sees increased precipitation, while Australia and parts of Southeast Asia face a higher risk of drought. These shifts can influence yields of major crops including wheat, corn and soybeans, potentially affecting global agricultural markets.