Ukraine’s grain stocks to shrink to 11.3 mln tons by season close

By the end of the MY 2025/2026, the transitional grain balances in Ukraine will amount to approximately 11.3 million tons, while market observers currently estimate stocks at 15.7 million tons. At the end of the season, Ukraine’s storage facilities are expected to have a balance of 4.9 million tons of wheat, 1.5 million tons of barley, and 4.5 million tons of corn. This was reported by the Ministry of Economy, Environment, and Agriculture of Ukraine.

“Even if the current export rates are maintained at the level of April 2026, by the end of the season, the balances may amount to about 11.3 million tons of grain in total, including 4.9 million tons of wheat, 1.5 million tons of barley, and 4.5 million tons of corn. For comparison, the final balances at the end of the 2024/25 MY amounted to 4.9 million tons of grain, including 1.7 million tons of wheat, 0.7 million tons of barley and 2.3 million tons of corn,” the Ministry of Economy notes.

The export rates of the first half of the season were restrained due to objective reasons, the ministry explains. This is a delay in the 2025 harvest campaign, a change in the geography of wheat exports against the background of increased domestic production in the EU (+23 million tons, from 122 million tons to 145 million tons in the 2025/26 MY), as well as constant shelling and destruction of port infrastructure, elevators, railway junctions and bridges.

In addition, potential grain exports at the beginning of the MY 2025/26 were estimated at 46.4 million tons — 14% more than what was actually exported in the 2024/25 MY (40.7 million tons). As of the end of April 2026, 30.3 million tons, or 65.2% of the potential, had been exported.

The broader export base this season partly explains the larger remaining volume to be sold. Potential exports in the MY 2025/26 were initially estimated at 14% higher than the actual volume of last year’s exports — 46.4 million tons in the MY 2025/26 versus 40.7 million tons in the MY 2024/25. In terms of crops, the potential is also wider: wheat — 17.7 million tons versus 15.8 million tons, corn — 25.3 million tons versus 22.0 million tons, barley — 2.7 million tons versus 2.3 million tons.

High current grain reserves do not indicate stagnation in exports — they are a consequence of a broader export base and objective limitations of the first half of the season, the Ministry of Economy states. However, the rates of the last four months, especially April, show catching up.

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Tags: stocks, Ukraine, export, grain, barley, wheat