2021/22 Argentina Corn 29% Planted vs. 38% Average
For the last several weeks, the weather in Argentina has generally been good enough to maintain adequate soil moisture, but farmers have decided to hold off on their corn planting. The condition of the early planted corn has improved for the last two weeks and it is now rated 91% good/excellent.
It is tempting to think about increasing the Argentina corn estimate because the condition of the early corn has improved, but the early corn is going to pollinate and fill grain in December and January when the weather is forecasted to be hotter and dryer than normal. Additionally, 70% of the corn has not even been planted, so I remain cautious concerning the corn crop in Argentina.
Farmers in Argentina are going to plant approximately 70% of their anticipated 2021/22 corn in the second phase of planting in December and January. The trend in recent years has been to plant more of the corn in the second phase and this year will be the highest percentage of corn ever planted during the second phase.
Corn planted during the second phase generally has a lower yield potential, but it is not an absolute correlation. Corn planted during the first phase generally pollinates and starts to fill grain during December and January, which tends to be the hottest and driest period in Argentina. So, the early planted corn can be negatively impacted by the summer weather. Metrologists have been forecasting hotter and dryer weather in December and January in Argentina and southern Brazil due to La Nina, so this needs to be monitored closely.
As of late last week, the corn was 29.2% planted compared to 31.4% last year and 38.2% average according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. This represents an advance of only 0.2% for the week. In the core production area, the corn is 85-90% planted with 30-40% of the corn planted in southern Argentina and 0% planted in far northern Argentina.
The corn condition was rated 9% fair and 91% good/excellent. The good/excellent percentage is up 7 points from the prior week. The soil moisture for the corn was rated 7% short/very short and 93% favorable/optimum. The favorable/optimum percentage was up 4 points from last week. In the northern core region, some of the earliest planted corn is starting to pollinate.
Below is the National Corn Planting Progress from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. The 2021/22 progress is the black line and the tan shaded area the maximum and minimum for the last five years.
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