Zimbabwe expects corn harvest to fall 30%, prepares $500 mln amid grain shortage fears

Zimbabwe forecasts a nearly 30% decline in corn production in 2027 due to an expected El Niño-induced drought. According to government estimates, the country’s corn harvest could total around 1.6 mln tons, significantly below the previous year’s level. To prevent a food crisis, the authorities plan to establish a $500 mln reserve to support grain purchases and strengthen national food security.

According to Zimbabwe’s Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube, the 2027 national budget will allocate $250 mln in cash reserves and another $250 mln for grain purchases. These funds are intended to help the country prepare for a potential decline in domestic production and maintain stable food supplies amid unfavorable weather conditions.

Zimbabwe’s annual corn requirement is approximately 2.2 mln tons, including around 400 thsd tons used for animal feed production. Therefore, with the harvest forecast at 1.6 mln tons, the gap between domestic production and consumption could reach 600 thsd tons. The country could cover part of its needs through strategic reserves, which the government has already started replenishing by purchasing around 200 thsd tons of corn from local farmers.

The threat of drought is particularly concerning following the events of 2024, when Zimbabwe declared a national disaster due to El Niño, leaving millions of people in need of food assistance. Another period of below-normal rainfall could negatively affect corn yields and other agricultural crops. Due to weather-related risks, the government has also lowered its economic growth forecast for 2027 from 5% to 3.5%.

If the adverse weather scenario materializes, Zimbabwe may need to increase corn imports to meet domestic demand. This could generate additional grain demand in the Southern African regional market, particularly if drought also affects production in neighboring countries. However, actual import volumes will depend on the outcome of the upcoming harvest, available stocks and the effectiveness of government procurement.

Tags: harvest, corn, grain, Zimbabwe