Will the port of Constanta be able to handle all Ukrainian grain next season?

Cargill trader Alexandru Neagu

The port of Constanta is preparing to transship Ukrainian grain in case the grain corridor is closed

Most market participants hope that the “grain corridor” in the Black Sea will continue to operate. However, the port of Constanta is considering scenarios with different transshipment volumes in case of its closure.

“We hope that the corridor will not be closed. Perhaps there will be a short stop for a few weeks or a month between seasons, but it will most likely continue to work. But even if the grain corridor is closed, Ukraine will be able to export 50 million tons of grain next year (marketing year – ed. note), because logistics through neighboring countries has improved significantly,” Alexandru Nahu believes.

Two scenarios for 2023: without extending the grain corridor and with working ports in Ukraine

The expert predicts that if Ukrainian exports through the ports of Greater Odesa are suspended, Constanza will receive about 6 million tons of corn and 4 million tons of wheat from the 2023 harvest.

“Of course, these are only rough estimates. In the scenario where the corridor is closed, we estimate that Constanta, including Romanian, Serbian and Ukrainian grain, will be able to transship 12 million tons of corn and about the same amount of wheat,” Alexandru Năgă said.

He noted that the Ukrainian ports of Reni and Izmail have increased their transshipment capacities, which will make it possible to export more grain, including through Constanta.

Constanta is increasing transshipment capacities on the water

Vladyslav Belakh, Deputy CEO of Ukrainian Danube Shipping Company, said that the company has developed its own logistics chain that will help increase exports through Constanta. It includes transshipment of dry bulk cargo, transportation of grain by barges to the Romanian port and its loading on board vessels on a side-by-side basis.

“We are considering increasing the transshipment capacity in the port of Constanta, which will speed up the processing of caravans,” the UDSC said.

According to Alexandru Nahu, the floating cranes in Constanta can handle about 2,500 tons of agricultural products per day.

“Most of the Ukrainian grain is actually delivered via barges. There are already 14-15 floating cranes in Constanta. The largest operator with 8 floating cranes is the DTS terminal, while other terminals have from 1 to 3 cranes. As we speak, 3-4 more floating cranes are on their way to Constanta. So, probably, we will have a total of 18-19 cranes for transshipment,” said the Cargill representative.

Assuming that there will be about 250 days in a year with good weather, which will allow transshipment of grain from barge to ship, Constanta will be able to transship 9 million tons by water alone. In general, the theoretical transshipment capacity of grains and oilseeds in the port reaches 30 million tons, but the expert estimates the real figures at 25-27 million tons.

This year, Ukrainian grain will compete with a large harvest in Romania and Slovakia for transshipment in the port of Constanta

The situation for Ukrainian exporters through Constanta may be complicated by a good harvest in Romania and neighboring countries, which is forecast for 2023. The flow of Romanian and Serbian grain to Constanta is likely to increase. The question of whether the port will be able to handle all these volumes remains open, says Alexandru Nahu.

However, he sees prospects in transshipment from barges to ships on the water.

“Since this situation started (the increase in grain volumes from Ukraine – ed.), everything has changed a lot. Initially, there were no barges, but now everything has changed a bit: according to our estimates, there are much more logistical capacities. Our colleagues from Ukraine will be able to deliver 1.5 million tons of grain per month with a caravan of barges, which is a significant increase. The number of barges has increased,” Alexandru Năgă said.

In general, the expert summarized that the absence of the “grain corridor” will be an extremely difficult task for the logistics of the Romanian port, but, according to him, relatively manageable.