Will fuel imports save Russia’s harvest?

Russia’s agricultural sector is facing serious risks ahead of the harvesting season due to a diesel fuel shortage that has already spread across more than 25 regions of the country. The most severe disruptions are recorded in southern grain-producing areas, where the bulk of crop production is concentrated. Farmers report unstable deliveries and sharply rising prices, which in some cases have nearly doubled.

The crisis has been caused by damage to Russian oil refineries following Ukrainian strikes, which has taken a significant share of refining capacity offline. Against this backdrop, the Russian government has extended its ban on gasoline and diesel exports until July 2026 and is attempting to offset the shortage through supplies from Belarus and negotiations with Kazakhstan.

At the same time, the market is witnessing an unprecedented move for Russia: the country, one of the world’s largest producers of petroleum products, is preparing to import fuel by sea from Asian countries for the first time in a long period. The first shipments could arrive within weeks via western ports. Such a scenario has not been typical for Russia’s fuel balance and effectively signals a structural shortage in domestic refining capacity.

For the agricultural sector, the situation remains critically strained. Even with additional imports, logistical constraints and high supply costs may limit their effectiveness. Risks of delays in harvesting remain, which could negatively affect both grain volumes and quality, while also complicating export logistics.

The fuel crisis is exacerbating structural problems in Russian agriculture after several volatile seasons. Higher fuel costs, potential disruptions during the harvest, and growing dependence on external supplies may weaken Russia’s export position on the global grain market. The further course of events will depend on the speed of refinery recovery, the scale of imports, the progress of the harvest in key regions, as well as the risk of new strikes on energy infrastructure that could further intensify the fuel shortage.