Wheat prices on world exchanges have risen, and in Ukraine they are pressured by the delay in the approach of the courts

Wheat quotes on world exchanges last week recovered from the previous week’s decline amid speculative growth in anticipation of frost in the US winter wheat growing regions.

Abundant precipitation in arid areas of the US wheat belt and snow in some parts of Kansas and Colorado replenished soil moisture reserves. In the states of Texas and Kansas, the state of wheat crops has slightly improved, but the lack of snow against the background of predicted frosts of -10..-15 ^o C worries traders.

In Ukraine last week, the pace of exports from the Black Sea ports decreased as a result of the shelling of the energy infrastructure of Odesa and the long-term blackout of the ports. During the week, 664,000 tons of grain were transported through the grain corridor, which is 1/3 less than the previous week.

According to the State Customs Service, in 2022/23 MY Ukraine exported 26.274 million tons of grain and leguminous crops as of January 30 (37.951 million tons for this period last year), in particular, 3.528 million tons in January (5.479 million tons in January 2022). Compared to the same period last season, wheat exports decreased from 16.93 to 9.444 million tons, in particular, 1.033 million tons were shipped in January.

Against the background of the delay in the approach of the vessels and the suspension of acceptance, the purchase prices for food wheat of class 2.3 in the ports of Ukraine fell to $215-225/t during the week, while the prices for fodder wheat remained at the level of $195-210/t.

During the week of January 20-26, the USA exported 445,443 thousand tons of wheat, which is 96,04 thousand tons higher than the previous week and 67 thousand tons more than the corresponding period last year. Half of the specified volume is spring wheat, another 117,000 tons are HRW wheat. Japan became the main destination of deliveries. In total, 13.222 million tons of wheat were shipped during the season (13.616 million tons last year).

Export inspections of wheat from the USA for January 20-26 increased by 27% to 445.4 thousand tons, and totaled 13.2 million tons in the season, which is 3% lower than last year’s pace. Low rates of exports from the US are putting pressure on prices, but the forecast of frost in the US and the lack of precipitation in Argentina are contributing to the speculative growth of quotations.

Yesterday, stock quotes rose:

• by 0.3% or $0.92/t to $276.5/t – March futures for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (+4.6% for the week),
• by 0.5% or $1.65/t to $321/t – March HRW hard winter wheat futures in Kansas City (+6.6%).
• remained at $338.6/t March futures for HRS durum wheat in Minneapolis (+3.8%).
• by 0.3% to $303.75/t – February futures for Black Sea wheat in Chicago (-0.9%).
• by 0.5% to €287.5/t or $311.77/t – March wheat futures on Paris Euronext (+3%).

In February, weather factors will significantly affect prices, and then traders will return to analyzing the statistics of wheat stocks and the export potential of the EU and the Russian Federation, which will increase the pressure on quotations against the background of the seasonal spring drop in demand.

Tags: Ukraine, prices, wheat, USA