Ukraine to remain world’s top sunflower oil exporter and narrow gap with Russia — USDA

In the MY 2026/27, Ukraine is expected to increase sunflower seed production, sunflower oil output, and exports following a weaker 2025/26 season. Russia, however, will retain its position as the world’s largest sunflower oil producer, according to USDA projections.

Sunflower seed: Ukraine rebounds from weak season

USDA forecasts Ukraine’s sunflower seed production at 13.5 million tonnes in 2026/27, up from 11 million tonnes in 2025/26. This represents an increase of 2.5 million tonnes, or nearly 23%, marking a recovery from a decade-low output.

Russia is also expected to increase production from 17.5 million tonnes to 19.2 million tonnes (+10%). The production gap between the two countries is projected to narrow from 6.5 million tonnes to around 5.7 million tonnes.

Sunflower oil: Ukraine restores output

The strongest recovery is expected in sunflower oil production. Ukraine’s output is forecast at 5.633 million tonnes in 2026/27, compared with 4.73 million tonnes in 2025/26, an increase of about 19%.

Russia’s production is also set to rise to 7.517 million tonnes from 6.897 million tonnes (+9%). The gap is expected to narrow from 2.17 million tonnes to 1.88 million tonnes.

Exports: Ukraine outpaces Russia in growth

USDA projects Ukraine’s sunflower oil exports at 5.1 million tonnes in 2026/27, up from 4.375 million tonnes (+16.6%). Russia is forecast at 4.85 million tonnes versus 4.2 million tonnes (+15.5%).

Despite Russia remaining the largest producer, Ukraine maintains an export advantage at 5.1 million tonnes versus 4.85 million tonnes, a lead of about 250,000 tonnes.

Since late 2025, Russia has been systematically striking Ukrainian sunflower oil production and storage facilities. According to Stepan Kapshuk, Director General of the association “Ukroliaprom,” these attacks represent a targeted effort to damage Ukraine’s oilseed sector.

Tags: export, USDA Report, Ukraine, sunflower oil