Wheat prices in Kazakhstan could rise by 10 %

Kazakhstan is expected to see a significant decline in wheat production in 2026 due to abnormal heat and drought across key agricultural regions. Local experts estimate the crop at 13–13.5 mln tons, around 30% below last year’s 19.3 mln tons.

Amid tighter domestic supply, Kazakh farmers expect wheat prices to rise by around 10% compared with 2025. Higher prices could help producers partially offset losses caused by lower yields.

At the same time, cheaper Russian grain could put pressure on the domestic market. Problems with exports through the Azov-Black Sea basin have resulted in new-crop grain accumulating on the Russian market, where wheat prices fell from RUB 13.8 thsd/t to RUB 13.4 thsd/t over the past week.

Kazakhstan has introduced six-month restrictions on wheat imports, although exemptions remain for certain processors and poultry producers. Market participants therefore fear that an inflow of cheaper Russian grain into Central Asia could limit the upside for domestic wheat prices.

This year’s Kazakh wheat crop could also be characterized by higher quality. Hot and dry weather is contributing to higher gluten content, which could support milling wheat prices but at the same time lead to tighter supplies of lower-grade grain required by the feed industry.

Tags: wheat, Kazakhstan, prices