High fertilizer prices threaten corn acreage in 2027

High fertilizer and energy prices could become one of the key risks to global corn production in 2027. Corn is particularly dependent on nitrogen fertilizers, meaning persistently high input costs could encourage farmers to reduce application rates or shift acreage toward less input-intensive crops.

In the US, expensive fertilizers could encourage farmers to reduce corn acreage in favor of soybeans. S&P Global Energy CERA estimated US corn acreage at 95.2 mln acres in 2026, down 3.6 mln acres from a year earlier. Production costs were estimated at an average of $917 per acre, just 1% below the record level seen in 2022.

Similar risks are emerging in Brazil, where farmers rely heavily on imported fertilizers and are also exposed to currency fluctuations. Lower corn acreage or reduced fertilizer application rates could limit production and export supplies, particularly if weather conditions are unfavorable.

The situation is compounded by a gradual decline in global grain and oilseed stocks. According to S&P Global, global corn, soybean and wheat inventories have been trending lower, making markets more sensitive to crop losses and other supply disruptions.

The combination of high production costs, potentially lower acreage and tightening stocks could support corn prices in 2027. S&P Global sees the possibility of corn and soybean markets entering a stronger price cycle if supplies tighten while demand remains firm.

Tags: corn, Brazil, USA, sown area