Wheat prices accelerated the decline on stock exchanges after the release of the January report in the USDA and IGS


Wheat prices on world stock exchanges accelerated their decline yesterday amid a rather bearish January report by the USDA, which lowered import consumption forecasts and increased Final stocks.

Analysts are increasingly paying attention to the low pace of wheat exports from the EU, especially against the background of increased production forecasts for the next season.

Stratégie Grains experts in their January report raised their forecast for soft wheat production in the EU countries in 2022/23 MG by 1 million tons compared to the previously announced indicator a month earlier – to 127.7 million tons, which is still inferior to the result a season earlier (129.8 million tons).

As specified, in Western and Central Europe, weather conditions since autumn are generally favorable for the development of winter wheat crops, despite the lack of precipitation in some areas of Spain, while in the south-east of Europe (especially in Romania) there were less favorable weather conditions.

March European wheat futures on Paris Euronext yesterday fell by 5.5 €/ton to 265.75€/Ton (3 305.1/ton), while September futures fell by 3.75€/ton to 244€/ton.

Lower prices for wheat of the new crop should accelerate sales of wheat of the old crop, the export rate of which does not yet meet expectations.

March Black Sea wheat futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange yesterday fell another 4 4.5/ton to 3 323/ton, losing 2.5% in two days, while falling prices for European wheat put maximum pressure on Black Sea wheat, which is now the main competitor in the region.

On January 13, the IGC raised its forecast for global wheat production for 2021/22 by 4 million tons to 781 million tons due to an improvement in the harvest forecast in Australia from 32 to 35.5 million tons. recall that in the January USDA report, the forecast for wheat production was raised to 778.6 million tons, and production in Australia was set at 34 million tons.

The IGC also indicated in its initial forecast that wheat production in 2022/23 will grow for the fourth consecutive season to a new record peak, but as consumption is also projected to grow, no major changes in stocks are expected.

March US futures fell sharply again yesterday:

  • by 4 4.04 / ton to Чикаго 274.4 / ton for soft winter wheat in Chicago;
  • by 6 6.71 / ton to 2 279.2 / ton for winter durum wheat in Kansas City;
  • by 9 9.19 / ton to.329 / ton for durum spring wheat in Minneapolis.

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