Wheat market barely reacted to new USDA report

In the June WASDE report for MY 2026/27, USDA experts only slightly adjusted the world wheat balance. Despite another reduction in the US harvest forecast, stock quotes practically did not react to the published data.

It is worth noting that the previous price decline over the past month by 6.7–16.7% almost completely offset the speculative growth observed before the May report.

After the publication of the June WASDE, July wheat futures were almost unchanged:

• SRW wheat in Chicago — $215.6/t (-15.7% since the May report);
• HRW wheat in Kansas City — $233.2/t (-15.2%);
• HRS wheat in Minneapolis — $228/t (-16.7%);
• wheat on Euronext in Paris — €203/t or $242.9/t (-6.7%).

The USDA has lowered its 2026 wheat production forecast in the US by 0.48 million tons to 42.0 million tons, which is 12 million tons less than what was harvested a year earlier.

Compared to May estimates, in the world wheat balance for the MY 2026/27, the forecast for world production has been increased by 1 million tons to 820.06 million tons. This is 24.3 million tons less than in the MY 2025/26, but 21 million tons more than in the MY 2024/25.

In particular, the USDA raised its harvest forecast:

• for Russia — by 2 million tons to 88 million tons (90.3 million tons in the previous season);
• for Ukraine — by 0.5 million tons to 23.5 million tons (24.1 million tons);
• for Turkey – by 1.5 million tons to a record 22.5 million tons.

At the same time, production estimates were lowered:

• for Australia — by 2 million tons to 28 million tons (36 million tons);
• for the USA — by 0.48 million tons to 42.0 million tons (54 million tons);
• for Pakistan.

At the same time, local analysts in Russia have already increased their own wheat harvest forecasts to 90–92 million tons due to favorable weather conditions in the spring.

The forecast for global wheat consumption in the MY 2026/27 has been increased by 1.36 million tons to 824.59 million tons compared to 823.29 million tons in the previous season, mainly due to an increase in consumption in the Russian Federation by 1.2 million tons.

The forecast for world wheat imports is practically unchanged at 207.29 million tons, compared to 220.93 million tons a season earlier. At the same time, the forecast for world exports has been increased by 0.25 million tons to 211.95 million tons, compared to 226.7 million tons in the 2025/26 MY.

Among the key changes:

• for Ukraine, the export forecast has been increased by 1 million tons to 14 million tons (14 million tons) due to increased stocks;
• For Australia, the export forecast has been reduced by 1 million tons to 22 million tons (25 million tons).

As the increase in opening stocks and production exceeded the increase in consumption, the forecast for world ending wheat stocks in MY 2026/27 was increased by 0.4 million tons to 275.42 million tons. This is only 4.5 million tons less than in MY 2025/26.

Overall, the global wheat balance for MY 2026/27 remains quite comfortable. In addition, rainfall in the EU, Ukraine, the Russian Federation and Australia continues to improve the prospects for the new crop. In such conditions, wheat quotes are likely to remain under pressure in the coming weeks against the backdrop of weak demand and favorable production forecasts.

Tags: prices, wheat